HIZABALLAH THREAT TO ISRAEL'S POWER OF DETERRENCE: 27.9.06

1. One of the reasons that Israel launched its military campaign against the Hizballah in July was to restore its power of deterrence in face of Hizballah's bellicose and aggressive actions including the flagrant violation of Israeli sovereign territory and the unprovoked use of violence against its soldiers and civilians. After the ceasefire with the Hizballah it seemed that this power of deterrence had to a degree been restored particularly in light of the fact that Hizballah positions were no longer being manned a few meters from Israel's border and that Hassan Nasrallah was in hiding for fear of his life.

2. Two related events however occurred last week which may be the portent of worse to come and a signal that Israel's restored power of deterrence will be put to the test soon.

In one incident a large group of Hizballah supporters (some of whom were said to be armed) stoned an Israeli military vehicle situated on the Israeli side of the border. The complete lack of an Israeli response - immediate or otherwise- to this taunting of its soldiers is what is worrying.Neither tear gas, water cannon or shots in the air were even fired in order to transmit a message of deterrence to the Hizballah. Whilst restraint is an admirable trait (at least in the West) in this particular case it will be seen by the Hizballah as being an act of weakness - it is almost a given cetainty that soon a similar but more brazen act against Israeli troops will be undertaken because the Hizballah logic will be that if Israel did not react to this provocation it may not act to the next one and so on.

The second portentous event was the giant Hizballah "victory" rally in Beirut where some 800,000 people saw and heard Hassan Nasrallah speak. There had been speculation that Israel may target him for assassination at the rally but even less forceful actions were not undertaken such as for example breaking the sound barrier over Beirut whilst Nasrallah was proclaiming victory. In his speech, Nasrallah mocked the tears of the Lebanese Prime Minister, Siniora during the war. Such derision of sensitivity only demonstrates how what is sometimes perceived as being admirable in the West is viewed as a weakness in the Middle East. Nasrallah's appearance showed his supporters that here he was appearing in public for all to see and not hiding in some bunker.

3. The upshot of the border fence stone throwing incident and of Nasrallah's unhindered public appearance in Beirut are both a blow to Israel's power of deterrence. Had Israel used a measure of force to deal with these two provocations then a clear message - do not try us - would have been sent out to the Hizballah and its followers. Alas, the message that has been transmitted to the Hizballah is to continue to provoke Israel and failing any Israeli action the pre-war status quo will slowly but surely be restored - something which is obviously to Israel's detriment.