POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS OF THE HIZBULLAH ATTACK ON ISRAEL

The flagrant breach of Israeli sovereignty by the Hizbullah in kidnapping two Israeli soldiers has led to what is fast turning into a mini-war on Israel's northern border. Whilst the dust is far from settling it is worth pondering three major political implications resulting from the fact that Hizbullah has succeeded in launching over1,500 rocket attacks on Israel's northern heartland.

1.Israel's total withdrawal from Lebanon over five years ago led to the relatively large scale arming of the Hizbullah (by Syria and Iran) to such an extent that it has succeeded in launching serious rocket attacks on Israel - certainly more serious than the thirty nine Scud missiles that Saddam Hussein's Iraq fired at Israel in 1991. Israel's enemies will certainly take note of how a small terrorist organization has succeeded putting Israel's northern home front on alert. The question posed is whether these enemies will be tempted into taking on Israel on a far larger scale than the Hizbulla has done or is able to? Israel has not responded to the Hizballah attacks by way of launching all out war on Lebanese soil but rather with a limited campaign. Were it to be attacked by enemies that are nation sates such as Iran and Syria it would obviously react with all or most of the power at its disposal and this should deter a rational enemy from trying to do what the Hizbullah has done so far - an attack on Israel's heartlands by an enemy state would result in total war causing death and destruction on such a colossal scale that it is doubtful whether such countries would want to try their hand against Israel as the Hizbullah has.

2. The events in Lebanon and Gaza have occurred in territory which Israel has unilaterally withdrawn from. The resulting unprecedented attacks on Israel's home front has cast serious doubts on the wisdom of future withdrawals (either bi-lateral or unilaterally) from land held by Israel in Judea and Samaria. Israel will be hardpressed to give up land when it is now very plausible that the Palestinians will in future launch attacks on central Israel as they have done on the South from Gaza and as has Hizbullah has done in the North from Lebanon. Moreover,the western world is far more liklelier to understand the terrible security dilemma that Israel will face should it withdraw from Judea and Samaria.In a very real sense Hizbullah has by its actions severely damaged the Palestinian cause. Israel may well have to look for another option with regard to solving the Judea and Samaria predicament (and Gaza) such as striving for a settlement with the Jordanians and Egyptians leading them to control land given up by Israel in trust for some sort of completely disarmed Palestinian entity.

3. If the Kadima's government planned redrawing of Israel's borders (even unilaterally) goes awry as a result of the second Lebanese war then the ideological differences betweenKadima and the Likud parties will be reduced paving the way for a unification between Kadima and the Likud. Israel would then revert to a traditional two (as opposed to three) major party system.